Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 5.199492 6.144408 7.189206 8.426906 9.849704 11.430566 13.316421
2025-05-25 3.519992 4.717995 6.191018 8.120549 10.564748 13.539633 17.414052
2025-06-01 2.593089 3.876360 5.603908 8.064682 11.438195 15.853257 22.011198
2025-06-08 1.977345 3.257461 5.123552 7.980547 12.167448 17.986778 26.570015
2025-06-15 1.672690 2.995672 5.059202 8.414713 13.609183 21.189081 32.879695
2025-06-22 1.367051 2.652027 4.788734 8.463959 14.447093 23.571909 38.220530
2025-06-29 1.125852 2.355935 4.527809 8.462525 15.169011 25.812210 43.520391
2025-07-06 0.933073 2.099692 4.280243 8.427569 15.803319 27.943151 48.807889
2025-07-13 0.869697 2.077426 4.441889 9.118407 17.721351 32.293897 57.984212
2025-07-20 0.769771 1.956703 4.394378 9.412379 18.965065 35.620271 65.735957
2025-07-27 0.691361 1.864210 4.383888 9.767423 20.344857 39.280516 74.318321
2025-08-03 0.597453 1.713949 4.227615 9.808288 21.132462 41.955132 81.389967
2025-08-10 0.488206 1.503013 3.911801 9.493623 21.231429 43.458254 86.631894
2025-08-17 0.389480 1.292105 3.556562 9.041692 21.005404 44.346356 90.857470
2025-08-24 0.328213 1.165736 3.374594 8.941083 21.481055 46.595552 97.768459
2025-08-31 0.276903 1.052833 3.202906 8.835104 21.926827 48.815500 104.783874
2025-09-07 0.257779 1.034152 3.270021 9.304922 23.673889 53.758324 117.399489
2025-09-14 0.224777 0.959956 3.173613 9.356912 24.486963 56.860295 126.600865
2025-09-21 0.194694 0.885997 3.062873 9.354689 25.171781 59.745070 135.562094
2025-09-28 0.167911 0.814847 2.945522 9.316255 25.763801 62.474572 144.387982
2025-10-05 0.165416 0.837003 3.113803 10.070834 28.338735 69.655568 162.860768
2025-10-12 0.151843 0.810152 3.124718 10.391757 29.879775 74.684378 177.131969
2025-10-19 0.140974 0.791200 3.157558 10.779243 31.624593 80.286126 192.955056